Financial Analysis

Regional Accounts

Where the money comes from, where it goes, and what we'd change. The Combined Authority controls ~£1.4bn directly — and spends too much on admin, not enough on growth. We'll freeze the mayoral precept, cut bureaucracy, fund business rate holidays, and commission private providers on results. Fiscal discipline, not bigger cheques.

£33.0bn
City Region GVA
£12.5bn
Total public spend in LCR
£1.1bn
CA controlled revenue
£735m
CA expenditure

Revenue Streams

Where the Combined Authority's money comes from.

Transport Capital (Government)

£710m

City Region Sustainable Transport Settlement (CRSTS) — £710m over 5 years for transport capital investment.

Next CRSTS round target: £1.2bn — but the real growth comes from leveraging private co-investment. PPP structures for stations, value capture around new stops, and concession models for airport links can double the effective investment without increasing the public call.

Transport Levy (from councils)

£97m

Statutory levy from the 6 constituent councils to fund Merseytravel operations, Merseyrail subsidy, and bus support.

Fixed formula — can only grow with council tax base. Enhanced Quality Partnerships could improve services while managing costs.

Investment Zone Funding

£80m

£80m over 10 years for Investment Zone sites — tax incentives and business support.

Could be expanded with demonstration of impact. Singapore-style zone could attract 10x this.

Adult Education Budget (Devolved)

£52m

Devolved skills funding for adult education, apprenticeships, and training across the city region.

Currently underspent relative to need. Employer-led commissioning would increase draw-down and impact.

UK Shared Prosperity Fund

£52m

Replacement for EU structural funds. Allocated to LCR for economic development, skills, and community projects.

Tapered allocation — needs to be replaced by devolved funding or the city region loses out.

Other Income (fees, charges, interest)

£45m

Merseytravel fare revenue, tunnel tolls, property income, and investment returns.

Tunnel tolls are significant (~£30m). Quality partnerships with private operators can grow fare revenue through better services and ridership.

European/Replacement Funds

£38m

Residual EU programme funding and transition arrangements.

Declining to zero. Must be replaced by domestic funding streams or city region loses investment capacity.

Government Grants (Gainshare)

£30m

Annual gainshare from the devolution deal — £30m/year for 30 years. Flexible investment fund.

Fixed at £30m/year. Could be increased through a deeper devolution deal — but only if the mayor pushes for it.

Mayoral Precept (Council Tax)

£19m

Small addition to council tax bills across the 6 boroughs — currently ~£19 per Band D property.

We commit to freezing the mayoral precept. Growth should come from expanding the tax base, not taxing residents more. A freeze demonstrates fiscal discipline.

Freeport Retained Business Rates

£15m

Business rates growth within Freeport tax sites retained locally for reinvestment.

Directly linked to investment — enhanced Freeport freedoms could multiply this 5-10x.

Expenditure Breakdown

Where the money goes — and our assessment of whether it's well spent.

Transport Operations

£280m

Merseyrail subsidy, bus support, tunnels, highways. Day-to-day running of the transport network.

Assessment

Rising costs from a lack of accountability in the current bus model. Enhanced Quality Partnerships — enforceable standards and integrated ticketing with private operators investing and competing — would improve services and reduce long-term cost.

Transport Capital Investment

£142m

New trains, station improvements, road schemes, cycling infrastructure. Annual average from CRSTS.

Assessment

Underspend vs need. But the answer isn't just bigger government cheques — it's PPP structures, value capture, and private co-investment. Target: £140/head effective spend through leveraged investment.

Economic Development

£85m

Inward investment, business support, Freeport operations, Investment Zone delivery.

Assessment

Too much spent on strategy documents and consultants, not enough on direct business support. Needs radical refocus on outcomes.

Skills & Employment

£62m

Adult Education Budget delivery, careers services, employment support programmes.

Assessment

Only 70% of AEB is actually spent. Too much goes to classroom provision, not enough to employer-led training. Massive inefficiency.

Housing & Planning

£55m

Housing investment fund, brownfield remediation, spatial planning.

Assessment

Brownfield fund is welcome but tiny relative to the housing shortfall. Need 10x the investment in site preparation and infrastructure.

Corporate / Administration

£48m

Combined Authority staff, offices, IT, governance, consultancy.

Assessment

Administrative costs rising while outcomes stagnate. Need to review whether the CA is structured for delivery or bureaucracy.

Health & Communities

£35m

Public health initiatives, back-to-work commissioning, community programmes.

Assessment

No results-based commissioning despite 26% economic inactivity. Private back-to-work providers paid by results would transform outcomes. Current approach is all process, no accountability.

Digital & Innovation

£28m

Digital connectivity, innovation support, R&D facilitation.

Assessment

Manchester spends ~£35/head. Target: £40/head. Funded from admin savings and Freeport/IZ leverage.

Borough-Level Finances

Every borough's economic picture — GVA, employment, deprivation, and council finances.

Spending Comparisons

Current CA spending per head vs Manchester and West Midlands. Every proposed target is ambitious.

CategoryLCRManchesterWest Mids
Transport capital (per head/yr)£89£128£95
Business support (per head/yr)£12£22£15
Skills investment (per head/yr)£33£41£36
Innovation/R&D support (per head/yr)£18£35£24
Admin costs (% of total)6.2%4.8%5.5%

Transport capital (per head/yr): Target: £140/head effective investment through PPP leverage and value capture — not just asking for bigger government grants.

Business support (per head/yr): The gap isn't about spend — it's about barriers. Target: £25/head, redirected from consultancy to direct deregulation support and business rate holidays.

Skills investment (per head/yr): We underspend on skills despite having a bigger skills gap. Target: £48/head through employer-led commissioning reform.

Innovation/R&D support (per head/yr): Manchester spends nearly double on innovation. Target: £40/head by redirecting admin savings and leveraging Freeport/IZ income.

Admin costs (% of total): Our admin overhead is the highest of the three. Target: 4.0%, returning £30m to frontline delivery and taxpayer value.

What We'd Change

Specific budget reallocations and new spending — every proposal costed, sourced, and targeted to deliver results.

Redirect 30% of AEB to employer-led commissioning

Costs £16m

Shifts £15.6m from classroom to workplace. Takes skills spend per head to £48. Same budget, radically better outcomes — employers decide what training they need, not bureaucrats.

Source: AEB reallocation — no new money needed

Cut admin overhead from 6.2% to 4.0%

Saves £30m

Frees £30m. Half returned to frontline delivery, half used to fund business rate holidays for new enterprises — genuine fiscal consolidation, not just reshuffling.

Source: Corporate/Admin budget — structural reform, not salami-slicing

Business rate holidays for new enterprises

Costs £15m

2-year business rate holiday for every new business in the city region. Funded from admin savings. Directly reduces the cost of starting a business — the single biggest barrier to enterprise growth.

Source: Admin savings + retained business rates growth

Freeze the mayoral precept

Signal fiscal discipline from day one. Growth comes from expanding the tax base, not taxing residents more. Every other spending commitment must be funded from savings or leverage — not new taxes.

Source: Fiscal discipline — no new revenue needed

Private back-to-work commissioning (payment by results)

Costs £20m

Commission private and voluntary sector providers to move people from inactivity to work — paid only when they succeed. If 5,000 people sustain employment = £125m GVA. ROI of 6:1. Market accountability, not process.

Source: Gainshare + DWP co-funding (payment-by-results model)

PPP transport investment leverage

Costs £10m

Seed funding for PPP structures around new stations, airport link, and value capture zones. Every £1 of public seed capital targets £10+ in private co-investment. Transport investment without bigger public cheques.

Source: Economic development budget reallocation + Freeport retained rates

Enhanced Freeport promotion and deregulation negotiation

Costs £5m

Dedicated team to negotiate Singapore-style freedoms and attract international investment. The Freeport is a unique asset. Every £1 in promotion leverages £100+ in private investment.

Source: Freeport retained rates + economic development budget