Growth Projection Tool
Every slider defaults to an ambitious target. The amber line is Manchester's trajectory — a key benchmark. Adjust the levers to see how different levels of ambition translate into GVA, jobs, and housing through to 2040.
Policy Levers
Close the 15% gap and move ahead of the UK average. Manchester is at -5%. Target: +2% (17pt swing)
From 6,800 to 14,000/yr — more than doubling the current rate. A strong per-capita enterprise rate for 1.6m people
Manchester is 74.2%, UK avg 75.7%. Target: 78% — above both benchmarks
10,000/yr for 1.6m people = meeting estimated housing need across the city region
The Freeport is a unique structural asset for the city region. Target: £5bn from £0.8bn
Target: £140/head effective investment. NPR + quality bus partnerships + PPP rail expansion
2.8% annual growth
By 2040
Cumulative by 2040
Cumulative by 2040
GVA Projection to 2040
Model assumptions: Simple compound growth model from £33bn base GVA. Each policy lever contributes an incremental growth rate. The amber line shows Manchester's ~3% trajectory — the minimum bar to clear. Default slider positions are calibrated to ambitious targets above the UK average. Projections are illustrative — real impacts depend on implementation speed and quality.