The Rotheram Record
Not what was announced — what actually changed. Programmes launched and powers secured are inputs. This scorecard measures outcomes: did the numbers that matter to 1.6 million people get better or worse?
The headline numbers since the metro mayor was created (2017)
| Metric | 2017 | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVA per head gap vs UK | £5,400 (2017) | £8,500 (2023) | |
| Productivity vs UK average | -12% (2017) | -15% (2023) | |
| Employment rate | 69.8% (2017) | 70.6% (2024) | |
| Business density ranking | 35th of 38 (2017) | 36th of 38 (2023) | |
| Economic inactivity | 25.1% (2017) | 26% (2024) | |
| Median weekly wage gap vs UK | -£80 (2017) | -£100 (2023) |
Five of six headline metrics have worsened relative to the UK average. Individual initiatives may have been delivered — but the outcomes that matter to residents have not improved.
Is the city region economy growing fast enough to close the gap?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVA per head gap vs UK | £5,400 (2017) | £8,500 (2023) | |
| Total GVA | £30bn (2017) | £33bn (2023) | |
| GVA growth rate | 1.8%/yr | 1.5%/yr (UK: 2.1%) |
Verdict: GVA has grown in absolute terms, but slower than the national average. The gap has widened by £3,100 per head. The city region is falling further behind, not catching up.
Is LCR becoming a better place to start and grow a business?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business density ranking | 35th of 38 (2017) | 36th of 38 (2023) | |
| Business births | 7,100/yr (2017) | 6,800/yr (2023) | |
| Freeport investment leveraged | N/A | £0.8bn |
Verdict: LCR has actually dropped a place in business density — from 35th to 36th of 38. Business births have fallen. The Freeport exists but has leveraged only £0.8bn against £5bn+ potential. Securing the designation is not the same as exploiting it.
Are more people in work and are they more productive?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rate | 69.8% (2017) | 70.6% (2024) | |
| Productivity gap vs UK | -12% | -15% | |
| Median weekly wage | £500 | £540 (UK: £640) |
Verdict: Employment rate has barely moved in 7 years — from 69.8% to 70.6%. The UK average is 75.7%. Productivity has actually fallen further behind. Wages have risen but the gap with the national average has widened from £80 to £100 per week.
Are fewer people economically inactive?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic inactivity rate | 25.1% (2017) | 26% (2024) | |
| ESA/UC health claimants | 88,000 (2017) | 97,000 (2024) | |
| Claimant count rate | 4.9% (2017) | 5.8% (2024) |
Verdict: Economic inactivity has risen, not fallen. 9,000 more people are on out-of-work health benefits than in 2017. The claimant count rate has worsened. A quarter of working-age people across the city region remain on the sidelines — and the number is growing.
Are more people using public transport?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bus ridership | ~175m/yr (2017) | ~130m/yr (2024) | |
| Rail journeys (Merseyrail) | ~36m/yr (2017) | ~38m/yr (2024) | |
| Active travel network | ~40km | 148km delivered/in build |
Verdict: Bus ridership has collapsed — down over 25% even accounting for Covid. Rail journeys have barely recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The new Merseyrail trains are a genuine achievement, but the outcome question is whether people are actually travelling more. They aren't. Bus franchising and the £2 fare are inputs — ridership is the outcome, and it's heading the wrong way.
Is transport investment closing the gap with other city regions?
Mixed / too slow| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transport capital spend per head | ~£80 (2017) | ~£89 (2024) | |
| GM transport capital spend per head | ~£110 (2017) | ~£128 (2024) | |
| Baltic Triangle station | Pledged | 2+ years delayed |
Verdict: Transport capital spend has risen slightly but the gap with Greater Manchester has widened — from £30/head to £39/head. Key infrastructure like the Baltic station is years behind schedule. The new trains are excellent but the network hasn't actually expanded meaningfully.
Is housing delivery meeting need?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual housing completions | ~4,200/yr (2017) | ~4,500/yr (2024) | |
| Estimated annual need | 10,000+ | 10,000+ | |
| Affordability ratio (house price/earnings) | 5.8x (2017) | 6.1x (2024) |
Verdict: Housing delivery has barely moved — ~4,500/yr against an estimated need of 10,000+. The "32,000 homes" figure cited by the CA conflates market delivery with mayoral influence. Affordability has worsened. For 1.6m people, the city region is building at less than half the rate it needs.
Has planning got faster?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool major planning decisions | ~50 weeks (2017) | 73 weeks (2024) | |
| Statutory target | 13 weeks | 13 weeks | |
| Development pipeline | ~£8bn | ~£10bn |
Verdict: Planning has got slower, not faster. Major decisions in Liverpool now take 73 weeks — up from ~50 weeks, against a statutory target of 13 weeks. The development pipeline has grown to £10bn but the planning system is a bottleneck preventing it from being delivered.
Is the workforce getting more skilled?
Mixed / too slow| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVQ4+ qualification rate | 35.2% (2017) | 40.9% (2024) | |
| Gap vs GB average | -4.8pp | -6.3pp | |
| No qualifications | 10.1% | 8.4% |
Verdict: NVQ4+ rates have improved in absolute terms — from 35.2% to 40.9%. But the rest of the country improved faster. The gap with the GB average has widened from 4.8 to 6.3 percentage points. AEB devolution was a genuine achievement, but the question is whether it's translating into outcomes fast enough.
Are young people leaving school with the skills they need?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knowsley Attainment 8 | 39.2 (2017) | 33.3 (2024) | |
| LCR youth unemployment vs UK | Above average | Still above average | |
| Graduate retention | ~48% (2017) | 51% (2024) |
Verdict: Knowsley's Attainment 8 score has fallen to 33.3 — the worst of any local authority in England. Only 19.5% of Knowsley pupils achieve grade 5+ in English and Maths. Youth unemployment remains above the national average despite the Young Person's Guarantee. Graduate retention has inched up but remains well below Manchester's ~68%.
Are health outcomes improving?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Life expectancy gap vs England | -2.1 years (2017) | -2.5 years (2024) | |
| Healthy life expectancy gap | -4.5 years | -5.8 years | |
| NHS dentist access (adults seen in 2yr) | ~45% (2019) | 36% (2024) |
Verdict: The life expectancy gap has widened. Healthy life expectancy has worsened even more — 5.8 years below the England average. NHS dentist access has collapsed from ~45% to 36%. Health is the biggest barrier to economic activity and it's getting worse, not better.
Is the city region safe?
Outcome improving| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crime rate per 1,000 | ~110 (2017) | 100.8 (2024) | |
| Relative to metro forces | Lowest | Still lowest of 6 | |
| Charge rate | ~70% | 87.7% — highest in England & Wales |
Verdict: This is a genuine success story. Crime has fallen 15% year-on-year — far exceeding the national 2.8% decline. Merseyside has the lowest crime rate of all 6 metropolitan forces and the highest charge rate in England & Wales. Credit to Merseyside Police, but also to the Combined Authority for not defunding or micromanaging.
Has practical energy infrastructure been delivered?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mersey Tidal Power | Pledged | Still in feasibility — no construction date | |
| Homes retrofitted | 0 | 8,000+ | |
| New energy generation capacity | None pledged | None delivered |
Verdict: The flagship Mersey Tidal project has been in feasibility for years with no construction date, no funding secured, and no delivery timeline. Retrofit delivery (8,000+ homes) is a genuine bright spot. But no new energy generation capacity has been delivered. The city region talks about energy ambition without building anything.
Has devolution delivered better outcomes — or just more bureaucracy?
Mixed / too slow| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devolution settlement | £0 | £1.6bn secured | |
| Private investment leverage ratio | N/A | Not published | |
| GVA gap despite devolution | £5,400/head | £8,500/head |
Verdict: Securing £1.6bn in devolved funding and an integrated settlement are genuine governance achievements. But the purpose of devolution was to close the gap — and the gap has widened. Money was secured. Powers were gained. The headline outcomes have not improved. The question is whether devolved resources are being deployed to maximum economic effect.
Can residents see what their money achieved?
Outcome worsening| Metric | Then | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Published outcome evaluations | None | None | |
| Covid Recovery Fund (£150m) breakdown | N/A | No public breakdown | |
| Independent performance scorecard | None | None — so we built one |
Verdict: No independent scorecard of mayoral delivery exists. £150m in Covid Recovery funding was allocated with no published breakdown of what it achieved. There is no routine publication of outcome data for major CA programmes. Residents cannot see what their money delivered. This page shouldn't need to exist.
Sources: ONS Regional GVA, ONS Annual Population Survey, ONS Business Demography, ONS ASHE, DLUHC Housing Statistics, DfE Attainment Statistics, ORR Station Usage, ONS Health State Life Expectancy, ONS Crime Statistics, Tyndall Centre. All comparisons are 2017 (metro mayor created) vs latest available data. See the Evidence Base for full source attributions.